Domestic attention turned to inflation.


All attention was focused on the inflation data for March.

Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce consumer and producer price indices at 10:00. While leading indicators pointed to an increase in inflation, market participants also predicted that inflation would reach a new peak in March.

In the inflation survey conducted by Bloomberg HT Research Unit, the median expectation of 23 institutions was that the consumer price index would increase by 61.4 percent in March compared to the same period of the previous year.

Participants predicted an increase of 5.6 percent compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, the lowest expectation for March inflation was 58.40 percent on a monthly basis, while the highest expectation was 63.40 percent. On a monthly basis, the lowest expectation is 3.8 percent; The highest expectation is at 7 percent.

The expectations of 20 institutions that shared their year-end inflation expectations in the survey pointed to a 45 percent increase forecast. In the February survey, the year-end expectation was at the level of 35 percent.

Inflation rose to 54.44 percent in February

CBRT’s year-end inflation forecast is 23.2 percent, while Treasury’s is 23.2 percent At level 24.

At the end of this year, there is a significant base effect that will pull inflation down due to the sharp rises in November and December 2021.

In February, annual inflation rose to 54.44 percent, above the expectations, led by food and transportation items, due to the cumulative depreciation of the Turkish lira.

The Central Bank (CBRT) stated that it will present a new inflation path with the routine inflation report next month after the rising inflation in the investor meeting held last week and gave the message that the main factor in price stability will be the liraization strategy.

CBRT said in its messages that the reflection of the PPI on the CPI, excluding energy, is almost complete and stated that disinflation will begin in a while.

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A bullish signal came from the first leading indicator

Türk-İş food inflation data, which is considered as one of the leading indicators of inflation, continues to accelerate. According to the data of the Confederation, food prices increased by 76.4 percent in March compared to the same period of the previous year.

Thus, according to the study of Türk-İş, food inflation reached a record level in March.

According to the data, food prices increased by 8.24 percent on a monthly basis.

According to the March results of the Wage Workers’ Livelihood Index announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), retail prices in Istanbul increased by 63.25 percent in March compared to the same period of the previous year.

Thus, the highest increase in 20 years was realized.

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